The End of Nations

The recent financial and trans-national violence has been exacerbated by the closeness of the world’s nations due to globalisation. Some commentators have believed that this awakening towards the ugly realities of globalisation is beginning to cause people to turn their toes to their heels in the sand and move towards de-globalisation instead. Globalisation is primarily the movement of humans to closer integration. And while it is fair to say that the current system of globalisation will almost necessarily be modified by this experience, just as the world was changed by the seafaring and the Great Depression this writer contends that it is re-globalisation not de-globalisation that will take place.

Re-globalisation is the equilibrating of human globalisation to a more sustainable system, hacking away at the jungle of problems limiting globalisation as it is and re-laying a road to more intimate human interaction. What would happen in human society would be an increased identification with city/town instead of country. This will initially seem to be de-globalisation and hearken back to the days before Industrialisation. However, the extensive connectivity offered by technology will increase interaction on this smaller scale. Globalisation would drive re-globalisation. This will be an unpremeditated outcome, resulting in a more stable global society.

The pyramid of human society is made up the following 5 levels in ascending order: the nuclear family, the extended family, the social community, the town/city, the nation. The nuclear family is the base of the hierarchy, and forms the backbone on human society. It is the backbone without which society would not be able to stand up straight. The extended family is the family complete with the extension of first cousins and more distant relations. This larger network is the network of spinal nerves throughout the human body, allowing for neural messages to be sent throughout the body. The social community includes friends and social acquaintances; it is the extended peripheral nervous system. The town/city is in essence the whole region centred on a city. It includes all the groups 3 basal groups and others that do not fall in the 3 groups but remain in the geographic area. It is the brain in the central nervous system. Combined, these four levels create a fully functioning nervous system and (extending the metaphor) a fully functioning human person. The country is an additional level that confers no ‘selective advantage’, except in size, in contrast to the town/city.

Technology is a key player in this. A closer world is created by increased human interaction benefitting from technology. The common clichés of the shrinking world are clichéd precisely because they are true. Plane flights shorten the distance between countries from months to hours. People no longer travel by steamship to one or two major destinations per country but have direct access to almost every corner of the world via air travel. Messages get sent over thousands of kilometres over the internet in less than 5 seconds, by a simple click of the mouse. This direct contact polishes the view of a city but blurs the vision of the country. The traits of a country diminish in importance while the qualities of the city increase in significance. Increasingly, people in conversation state their city or state before nationality. The locale is accentuated at the expense of the country. A Spaniard from Catalonia is Basque first, Spanish second; an Italian from Turin is Lombardian first, Italian second; an American from Texas is Texan first, American second… The new borders of the world are the city and state instead of the country. A redrawn world map would run out of shades before the world ran out world runs out of main cities. With these come a strengthened local identity and a corresponding weakened national identity.

The erosion of national identities should come as no surprise. Modern nations as contemporarily known are relatively new creations. The Italy Republic was only proclaimed a republic in 1946 (and united in 1861), the German Federation was only formed in 1949 (Germany was only unified in 1871), the Anglo-Irish treaty was only signed in 1922, the United States in its present form only began in 1898 and a unified, modern China (after the period of the Warring Lords) was only achieved in 1949. These represent some of the major nations of the old world and modern politics, not to mention the even now independent former colonies. Identities take generations to form, and it should be no surprise that many nations, even the economically-developed ones, have not completely discovered their national identity.

The more commercially developed a city, the more well known it will be world-wide, and it is inhabitants of these cities that will begin this functional realignment. Inert human pride and ambition, that has driven growth-at-all-costs capitalism, will press lesser cities to level and match up to the metropolises. Birmingham, Edinburgh, Manchester and Liverpool will not want to play second fiddle to London for long, and ambitious politicians will emerge with grand plans to catch up. A city’s prominence increases and city pride is thereby boosted. This will improve ‘city-zen confidence’, enhancing the identification with the city before the country. Obviously this is still insignificant, and as with the length of human history will not happen over a short one or two years.

A second important factor is urbanisation. Obviously, a nation will still hold sway if the town/city is too small to make a significant change. However, urbanisation is not a far-drawn concept it is very real. Singapore, Monaco and other nation states are already 100% urban. Fast rising China is currently 60% urban and it is estimated that by 2050, 80% of that vast country will be an urban population. A similar situation can be seen in New Dehli, Tokyo and in other cities and continents the world over. Movement in the opposite direction is existent but insignificant, since the profile of movers in the opposite direction are those who have made so much from urbanisation that they can be isolated but not removed.

Politics is shaped by many factors; one of the most influential is that of economic importance. Economic structures will change evolve to fit this new reality (e.g. agricultural sites may still be as big but much may be automated and controlled by corporations instead). The economic importance of cities (as the marketplace) will therefore grow. This would translate into rising practical importance of key city officials over provincial or state officials. This would be so even though legislative control is still held by the higher political hierarchy. This is to say that, the country will not disappear even though the real power has been decentralised.

It might be then put, “is this not what is happening now?” Indeed, it is not so. What is being proposed here is a direct city to city relationship transcending national boundaries. Today, only city-states like Singapore, the Emiratis of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and nations that rely on one major city, like Bandar Seri Begawan in Brunei could be said to deal with others as cities. Most countries go through national level committees, many, deal with national governments so extensively that they almost never meet the municipal government of the city they are cooperating in.

The upheaval caused by lack of understanding and misunderstanding, accentuated by proximity will create an even closer and safer world. Unlike globalisation, which was in a sense a ‘top-down’ approach, which peoples were forced to adapt to, re-globalisation is a ‘bottom-up’ or organic growth created in response to the situation of today. It is not an intentional process, but will happen because of human adaptation to the situation, abhorrence to violence will also lead people to attempt to dissociate from national stereotypes. Because the relationship is more personal, understanding increases and misunderstandings begin to get cleared up. Faces get put to groups and lives get more intertwined. Human concern will mature due to the awakening to reality of the “interconnectivity of all decisions”. There grows a vested interest in ensuring that global security endures. It is this interest that will lead to a more stable global society.

This presents a tremendous opportunity for major cities to take advantage of. The End of Nations will make way for the Rise of the Metropolis .

Quote – Seneca on the Shortness of Life

Lucius Annaeus Seneca (5 BC – 65) was an ancient Roman stoic philosopher, statesman as well as a member of the literati. One of the few Roman philosophers whose fame has lasted into our time, Seneca’s work is still applicable to our time.

The more things the more they stay the same. The substance of life which he speaks of over two thousand years ago is still the same substance they we look at today.

As follows is my attempt to condense his dialogue, De Brevitate Vitae, into a few key paragraphs.

It is not that we have a short time to live, but that we waste a lot of it. Life is long enough, and a sufficiently generous amount has been given to us for the highest achievements if it were all well invested. But when it is wasted in heedless luxury and spent on no good activity, we are forced at last by death’s final constraint to realise that it has passed away before it was passing. So it is: we are not given a short life but we make it short, and we are not ill-supplied but wasteful of it.

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So what is the reason for this? You are living as if destined to live forever; your own frailty never occurs to you; you don’t notice how much time has already passed, but squander it as though you had a full and overflowing supply – though all the while that very day which you are devoting to somebody or something may be your last. You act like mortals in all that you fear, and immortals in all that you desire.

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Everyone hustles his life along, and is troubled by a longing for the future and weariness of the present. But the man who spends all his time on his own need, who organises every day as though it were his last, neither longs for nor fears the next day. For what new pleasures can any hour now bring him? He has tried everything, and enjoyed everything to repletion. For the rest, Fortune can dispose as she likes: his life is now secure. Nothing can be taken from this life, and you can only add to it as if giving to a man who is already full and satisfied food which he does not want but can hold. So you must not think that a man has lived long because he has white hair and wrinkles: he has not lived long, just existed long.

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Perhaps you would like to know whom I call the preoccupied? … idle preoccupation… indolent occupation… [they who are] so enervated by the excessive torpor of a self-indulgent mind…

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Of all people only who are at leisure who make time for philosophy, only those are really alive. For they not only keep a good watch over their own lifetimes, but they annex every age to theirs… None of these will force you to die, but all will teach you how to dies. None of them will exhaust your years, but each will contribute his years to yours. With none of these will conversation be dangerous, or his friendship fatal, or attendance on him expensive… What happiness, what a fine old age awaits the man who has made a client of these! He will have friends he can ask on the most important or the most trivial matters, whom he can consult daily about himself, who will tell him the truth without insulting him and praise him without flattery, who will offer him a pattern on which to model himself.

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[The Philosopher] alone is free from the laws that limit the human race, and all ages serve him as though he were a god. Some time has passed: he grasps it in his recollection. Time is present: he uses it. Time is to come: he anticipates it. This combination of all times into one gives him a long life.

But life is very short and anxious for those who forget the past, neglect the present and fear the future. When they come to the end of it, the poor wretches realise all too late that for all this time they have been preoccupied in doing nothing… Their own folly afflicts them with restless emotions which hurl themselves upon the very things they fear: they often long for death because they fear it… They lose the day in waiting for the night, and the night in fearing the dawn.

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And what of the fact that even their joys are uneasy?  The reason is that they are not based on firm causes, but they are agitated as groundlessly as they arise… All the greatest blessings create anxiety, and Fortune is never less to be trusted than when it is fairest. To preserve prosperity we need other prosperity, and to support the prayers which have turned out well we have to make other prayers… New preoccupation takes the place of the old, hope excites more hope and ambition more ambition. They do not look for an end to their misery, but simply change the reason for it.

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You must retire to these pursuits which are quieter, safer and more important… from which you will learn the substance of god, and his will, his mode of life, his shape; what fate awaits your soul… In this kind of life you will find much that is worth your study: the love and practice of the virtues, forgetfulness of the passions, the knowledge of how to live and die, and a life of deep tranquillity.

How Small Countries Can Take Advantage of Globalisation

It was a topic that became a cliché and was written to death in the last couple of decades. Little is said now about Globalisation, since the world is trapped in its whorl. The more comprehensive globalisation becomes, the more pervasive its presence, then the more intertwined our lives become. The activities of a group across the Atlantic can have an effect on us where we are. Even today, the livelihood of a farmer in the rice fields of South Korea is affected by the political circumstance in the United States.

Globalisation arose from the ashes of colonialism. But while it takes a different ideology and form, its motivation is fundamentally the same. The Spaniards said it best when they set off for the New World – for Gold, Glory and God. It is the economy and human livelihood, fuelled by pride and ambition, which is central to globalisation. This is this same mix of ingredients that led to the expansion of the Roman Empire, the establishment of the Mughal Empire, the 7 sea expeditions of Cheng Ho, the colonial voyages of the European powers and most of the major events of world history.

What is globalisation actually? To this writer, globalisation is simply a movement to complete human interaction. It is the disintegration of racial, ethnic and religious borders and the creation of a single human border. It is also the association of all humanity into one common system of economic, social and cultural boundaries. It is the smashing together of vastly different peoples – human integration on steroids – as a result of technological explosion. It is first and foremost motivated by economic concerns.

Globalisation is primarily an economic endeavour. Economies are based chiefly on money and this consideration of money is principally affected by trade quantity. The human nature is attracted to the new and exotic, and the greater size and diversity of humans will lead to even more products and hence more financial exchange. Trade therefore expands exponentially with the increment of size and diversity of the human population. Evidently, with a greater population and market of consumers, global trade is conducted on a larger scale than a localised one. That being the case, there would be a quantitative increase in trade when commerce is conducted on a higher level.

A country’s economic prosperity and overall strength is intrinsically linked to its global engagement. The more involved a country, the greater its economic growth. However, it then becomes more easily affected by the going-ons of the world. The level of exposure is proportionally linked to the level of economic volatility, instability. A regime like North Korea is extremely poor yet its economy is insulated from most of the events of the world because it is intransigent with the world. In contrast an island-nation like Singapore thrives precisely because of its global openness but at the same time is the first to experience he aftershocks of major global catastrophes. In the 2009 global economic depression, for example, Singapore was one of the first in Asia to both fall in and climb out of the recession.

TIME Magazine, published a report on how China and India coped with the economic recession of 2009[1]. In the article it elaborated on how India came out better than China because the former moved at a slower pace. While there is a multitude of reasons for it, the fact that India was less exposed to the global economy than China certainly played a major part in its safer padding.

This then raises a disturbing question. Countries are in a cleft stick since they are dependent on globalisation and global exposure to grow their economy but at the same time more vulnerable as they open their economies. It is like being caught between a rock and a hard place. Either way brings with it huge risks. Is a country then able to have its cake and eat it? Is it possible to gain similarly dramatic economic growth without a corresponding dangerous escalation of economic susceptibility? Big countries, with large populations are able to do that by cultivating their population. The experience of the United States and the purchasing power of its people should give great comfort to large nations of what it too is capable of achieving as long as it can raise the average education and employment levels of its populations by investing in its local market.

Not every country can drastically increase its hinterland by increasing its population’s education, employment and income levels. Singapore is a good example. Once general education reaches a saturation point, however higher the level of education becomes makes no difference. The ‘quality’ of work may increase but the lack of ‘quantity’ is still cruelly exposed.

This does not mean that smaller countries are worse off. Instead, its disadvantage becomes its very advantage. Smaller size equates to simpler management and quicker response (obviously geographic size also plays an important role). A small nation can use its quality to bring in quantity thereby redrawing the world map while maintaining economic security. Here are some ideas that my untrained mind would suggest.

First, small countries can look to take advantage of industries with higher stability. These are industries that would never go out of fashion in spite of any global problems, for example, the medical industry.

Whether one lives in Switzerland or Swaziland, a person is bound to fall sick. Illness does not discriminate between developed or developing nations, bearish or bullish economies, rich or poor countries, democratic or communist regimes. In war or in peace, people fall sick. Whether a nation respects international law or not, people still fall sick. When people fall sick, they either visit a doctor of conventional medicine or a physician of traditional/alternative medicine. Investing in a capable public and private medical system with top-notch research and bed-side facilities, as well as affordable healthcare and ample service providers could greatly help a nation’s economy. The size, quantity, quality and diversity of medical schools in the country could also help draw a greater share of the industry to the country. Direct healthcare is but one beneficiary of such a plan, since a strong medical system will draw other kinds of healthcare providers and support industries such as the pharmaceutical companies

Another example is the education industry. All people know that education brings a better life. An Economist article in 2009 showed that the higher ones education level the more one benefits even in a recession[2]. Unless a major political catastrophe hits (e.g. Robert Mugabe wannabes control the world) the demand for education will not dip. A world-renowned education system from primary to tertiary level, with room for both locals and foreigners should be the aim. If this top education system can cater about 25% of its annual slots to non-locals, on top of fulfilling the demand of the locals, it can create an influx of brain power which will then have a ripple on effect on the repute of the city and the economy.

Any country that wants to consider the effect of a strong education should conduct a case study of the mutually beneficial relationship between University of Edinburgh and Edinburgh city. The city of Edinburgh is a mere 150,000 but its former inhabitants include David Hume and Adam Smith (who were both students of the University of Edinburgh). Charles Darwin of “On the Origin of Species” fame was attracted to the University. More recently, Edinburgh cloned Dolly the sheep. The Scottish education system has also produced two British Prime Ministers of recent time, Tony Blair and the incumbent Gordon Brown. If a top quality secondary and tertiary education system can produce so many movers and shakers, the prospect of a completely wholesome education system that sets everyman on the path to fully developing his potential is even more exciting.

Since it is these key services that big nations struggle with, small nations can benefit from the tourist dollar of medical tourism and the school fees of foreigners. These two less volatile industries combine to affect many other industries. By increasing their share of GDP contribution, a nation can lift its economy without over-exposing the country to unnecessary risks.

Secondly, converting high profit – high risk industries into high profit – lower risk industries such as in the financial sector. There are many global banking instruments that deal in extremely risky trade numbers, such as the extremely volatile housing market. The economic collapse of 2009 was an example of a gamble gone wrong. However, if investments were redirected to less volatile industries that would grow in most economic circumstances it becomes even greater yet secure manner of economic growth. Also in the banking industry, banks could consider decreasing risk by expanding its quantity of clients throughout a region but keeping its finances in a stable currency such as gold. In the troublesome times of today, a reputation of stability is extremely helpful. It would be a bonus if a bank can have the clientele of Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) and the stability of Bank of China (BOC). The finance industry will obviously have an important effect on a country’s economy, reducing its risk by playing safe will once again push economic growth while minimising unpredictability.

Thirdly, a small nation can literally level up with a big country by the expansion of its hinterland. In the case of Singapore for example, its natural hinterland is peninsula Malaysia. Its historical hinterland is the whole of South-East Asia. Its cultural hinterland includes the Middle East, China and India, and its economic hinterland also involves the whole Anglophone world and the Commonwealth. Also, the growth of a particular population in Singapore can create a new hinterland for the country. By using all these links, what is produced is thereby a major commercial hinterland that potentially involves the whole world. Obviously, not every country can do as Singapore, since not every country is a mainly immigrant population like that of Singapore. Cambodia can make greater Indochina and the France its extended hinterland, but it will be a stretch to expand it otherwise. One has to be discriminate in the relative importance and practical possibility of each hinterland. In the case of Singapore it is vital that the South East Relationship be cultivated (See Urgent Case for ASEAN Integration Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3).

To this end, one could think of the Athens or Rome of antiquity. Both cities and regions were not big, but they absorbed many natural hinterlands, Athens the whole Greek and Macedonia while Rome the Italian region. And through that absorption, these cities thrived.

If a special relationship is enjoyed between the peoples of some of these countries, then through the use of the populations of other nations, a small nation can leverage upon to grow its economy safely in the age of globalisation.

Finally, if a country does not have a greater hinterland it can create its own. The South Koreans do not have a major territorial hinterland apart from their neighbours up north. But with the frosty political situation in the Korean peninsula such expansion was not promising. Hence South Korea entered Vietnam in the early 1990s and is today reaping the rewards of a rising Vietnam. Developing economies present blank canvases to be drawn on; this allows more developed nations to be able to play a role in creating a system somewhat to their fancy. Since the roadmap to economic success for developing countries has been mapped out, it becomes an investment that is almost a surety. Candidates include Peru, Columbia, Ghana, Timor Leste, Rwanda etc…

These four suggestions are admittedly perfect case scenarios. Humanity is driven as much by logic as by desire and situations are ever-changing. Words are easy to type, actions are difficult to perform.

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[1] http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957281,00.html

[2] Higher Education and the Recession, Sep 10, 2009, The Economist